Living-wage job prospects down overall as gender gap widens

WASHINGTON, March 19, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Functional unemployment worsened in February, particularly for women and Black workers, according to the latest report from the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (LISEP).

LISEP’s February True Rate of Unemployment (TRU) report—a measure of the functionally unemployed, defined as the jobless, those seeking but unable to find full-time employment, and those earning poverty-level wages—increased 0.8 percentage points, from 23.9% to 24.7%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a 0.1 percentage point increase in the official unemployment rate for the month, from 4.3% to 4.4%.

Over the past three months, the TRU has averaged 24.6%—higher than the 24.3% average in the first half of last year, but lower than the 24.9% average in the second half of 2025.

“February’s increase in functional unemployment follows a sharp drop in January, suggesting recent volatility rather than a clear, sustained improvement in labor market conditions,” said LISEP Chair Gene Ludwig.

Black workers saw the largest increase in TRU in February, rising 1.9 percentage points, from 26.9% to 28.8%. The TRU for Hispanic workers increased 0.6 percentage points, to 28.1%, while the TRU for White workers increased 0.2 percentage points, to 22.9%.

Black workers have fared much worse than White and Hispanic workers over the past year, with the Black TRU trending upward since April. The three-month average TRU for Black workers now stands at 28.4%, 1.5 percentage points higher than a year ago; the same three-month average for Hispanic workers is now 28%, a 0.5 percentage point decrease. For White workers, the three-month average is up 0.3 percentage points, to 22.9%.

These disparities are not coincidental. LISEP’s TRU data aligns with broader labor market evidence showing that Black workers—particularly Black women—experienced disproportionate employment losses in 2025, in part reflecting the outsized impact of federal government layoffs on these workers.

By gender, the TRU for men fell 0.2 percentage points, to 18.9%, while the TRU for women increased 0.8 percentage points, to 30.6%. The gender TRU gap—based on the three-month average for each group—now stands at 10.7 percentage points, compared to 9.5 percentage points a year ago as the TRU for women increased steadily over 2025.

“The February one-month increase suggests a return to more typical levels following January’s decline, while the three-month trend indicates that although functional unemployment rose over the course of 2025, it has shown some improvement since the end of the year,” Ludwig said. “At the same time, these figures may not yet fully reflect recent economic disruptions stemming from geopolitical developments, which could point to increased uncertainty ahead.”

About TRU
LISEP issued the white paper “Measuring Better: Development of ‘True Rate of Unemployment’ Data as the Basis for Social and Economic Policy” upon announcing the new statistical measure in October 2020. The paper and methodology can be viewed here. LISEP issues TRU one to two weeks following the release of the BLS unemployment report, which occurs on the first Friday of each month. The most recent TRU and supporting data are available on the LISEP website at https://www.lisep.org/tru.

About LISEP
The Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (LISEP) was created in 2019 by Ludwig and his wife, Dr. Carol Ludwig. The mission of LISEP is to improve the economic well-being of middle- and lower-income Americans through research and education. LISEP’s original economic research includes new indicators for unemployment, earnings, and cost of living. These metrics aim to provide policymakers and the public with a more transparent view of the economic situation of all Americans, particularly low- and middle-income households, compared with misleading headline statistics. On X: @LISEP_org.

About Gene Ludwig
In addition to his role as LISEP chair, Gene Ludwig is a managing partner of Canapi LLC, a financial technology venture fund. He is the founder and CEO of Ludwig Advisors, which counsels financial firms on critical matters. Ludwig is also the founder of the Promontory family of companies. He is the former vice chairman and senior control officer of Bankers Trust New York Corp. and served as the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency from 1993 to 1998. He is also author of the book The Vanishing American Dream, which investigates the economic challenges facing low- and middle-income Americans. His new book, The Mismeasurement of America, was published September 2025 and is now available online or wherever books are sold. On X: @geneludwig.

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SOURCE Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity